The Moldovan government lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2022 from 0.3% to 0%, and raised the inflation forecast from 21.9% to 29.5%.
Taking into account this new forecast of macroeconomic indicators, agreed with the IMF experts, the Ministry of Finance developed amendments to the Law on the state budget for 2022. As noted, the Ministry of Economy revised the forecast of macroeconomic indicators for 2022, taking into account the economic impact of the crisis of Ukrainian refugees, the crisis in the energy sector and rising prices for basic goods. According to the scenario, revised in August after agreement with the IMF experts, in comparison with the April's forecast, the prospects for GDP growth in Moldova this year were reduced from 0.3% to 0%. Earlier in April, the GDP growth forecast for 2022 was lowered from 4.5% to 0.3%, while the inflation forecast was raised from 6.9% to 21.9%. Now the inflation forecast has been raised to 29.5%. It is emphasized that in reality the situation may turn out to be more pessimistic than currently expected, since there are still great risks and uncertainties regarding the development of the crisis in the energy sector, as well as the armed conflict in Ukraine, which may further affect the forecasted macro indicators. As noted in the materials of the Ministry of Finance, at the moment it is expected that in nominal terms, GDP in 2022 will amount to 279.7 billion lei instead of the previously forecasted 273.5 billion lei, and GDP growth will be 0% instead of 0.3%. Average annual inflation is expected at 29.5% instead of 21.9%, and inflation at the end of the year will be 33.8% instead of 15.7%, which was forecast in April when the government made the latest amendments to the state budget. It is expected that the average annual exchange rate of lei against the dollar this year will be 19.14 per $1 instead of 18.81 per $1, and the rate at the end of 2022 will be 19.91 per $1 instead of 19.13 per $1. It is predicted that in 2022 Moldovan exports will grow by 40.4% - up to $4 billion 415 million (previously expected growth of 4.5%), and imports will increase by 25.1% - up to $8 billion 976 million (previously expected growth 6.9%). It is assumed that the deficit of the foreign trade balance will be $4 billion 561 million instead of the previous forecast figure of $4 billion 383 million. Industrial production is expected to grow by 1.5% this year instead of 3.5%, and in current prices it will be 76.6 billion lei instead of 81 billion lei. In the agricultural sector, in 2022, a decline in production is expected by 18% - to 40.1 billion lei instead of a decline of 2.5% to 55 billion lei. It is also predicted that investments in long-term tangible assets will grow by 3.5% in comparable prices in 2022 - up to 37.4 billion lei instead of an increase of 5% to 32.7 billion lei. //22.08.2022 — InfoMarket.
